Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 1/14-16 (likely voters):
Re-Elect John Shadegg: 39%
Vote for someone else: 38%
Undecided: 23%
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The full polling memo offers some other encouraging signs for Democrats:
While Republicans have a 14-point advantage in party registration in this survey of likely voters, they only have a three-point advantage in party identification (37% to 40%) and only a one-point advantage among strong party affiliation
This is an R+6 district, so it won’t be an easy ride for any Democrat, but Bob Lord has been raising enough money and making the right moves to keep this one interesting. The numbers show that he does have something to work with.
Imagine if this seat was open still. What a bummer… But on the plus side, defeating incumbents is more fun!